Thursday, May 29, 2008

Is a Manned Mars Mission realistic?

In reading Cranz's Failure Is Not An Option, and I'm currently in Michael Collins' Carrying The Fire, the following appear to have contributed significantly to the ultimate success in putting man on the moon...

1. A popular President in JFK set a specific mandate

2. Though impossible to truly measure, it seems to me that JFK's assassination may have played an even larger role in motivating NASA to make good on the mandate

3. Everyone involved understood and accepted the inherit risks of exploring realms not conducive to human survival

4. Early on there was distinct pressure from the USSR that was also a key motivational force, though by the mid-60's that pressure was fading.

It took those four factors and a large group of brilliant minds to achieve the moon. And even with all of those strong forces aligned, a handful of lives were lost, not to mention the number of close calls and the objective was achieved with just several months to spare. Based on the accounts of Cranz, Lovell and Collins, the journey to Mars is a different ball game.

Since achieving the moon, for the past two decades NASA has struggled at times to get in and out of Earth orbit safely, exposing flaws in their decision-making processes. I was impressed by Cranz's account of the multitude of Go/NoGo decision points during a mission. That was just for a 3-day trip to the moon. I can't imagine number of such decision points for a 9-month trip to Mars. That said, I don't doubt man's ability to find a way, but I don't think the other factors are in place.

One, national leadership is lacking.
Two, as a society, in many ways we're less willing to invest lives for the sake of accomplishing an objective; unless you're an extreme sports athlete. And while I'm sure there are already astronauts lined up to board the first ship to Mars I don't think the public is willing to accept the risks involved.
Three, I'm unaware of any other entity pursuing a similar cause to create any sense of competition.

All of that said, as I watched coverage of the Phoenix mission which landed on Memorial Day, I wondered how long it will be before I'm watching a screen with images of a human taking the first steps on Mars.